This is a fine theory, only with one fatal flaw.
The developers have "inhaled the KoolAid".
The interface you see today, is how Windows 9 will look as well.
And the lock-in (Windows control over what applications can run,
which OSes will be bootable on the computer, the Applications Store)
is all part of the business plan. There's no going backwards on that.
It's supposed to be a money-making plan.
You see, Sinovsky's ego is tied up in this, Ribbons and Metro.
And no executive can ever be seen to be back-pedaling. When
Steve Jobs should have back-pedaled, he came up with "you're
holding it wrong". The same will happen with Windows. To their
dying day, they'll never admit that any UI changes were
a mistake. It's just... not how the world works.
If Sinovsky was fired, and some other dude takes over, then,
they could change it. But maybe he has his own, tiny, reality
The only way this situation could have a happy ending, is
Balmer is replaced by someone parachuted in to take his
place. Now, that kind of thing is quite popular. No company
likes to promote from within. It's much more fun to take
talent from outside, and throw them into the mix. And when
that happens, there could be an executive team shakeup.
It's a long shot. And considering the timing, design doc
close for Windows 9 will have happened, before any executive
shakeup takes place.
Considering how many computers have been made obsolete by
Windows 8 (NX dependency), I don't think they really
give a rats ass about the desktop. It's all "mobile"
from now on.